How likely is a burglar to come back?

Elevated but not inevitable, and the elevation is brief. Research summarized by the COPS Office puts about 60 percent of repeat burglaries within one month of the first and about 10 percent in the second month, with low likelihood after that. A separate DOJ guide reports previously burglarized houses are up to four times more likely to be burglarized than houses never targeted.

How soon do burglars return?

Fast, where it happens. In Tallahassee, Florida, 25 percent of repeat residential burglaries occurred within one week and 51 percent within one month. In Merseyside, England, the figures were 11 percent within a week and 33 percent within a month. The DOJ burglary guide puts the most likely repeat window at within six weeks.

Is it the same burglar who comes back?

The research does not settle that, and we would not claim it. The explanations offered include the original offender returning for property left behind or for insured replacements, and other offenders acting on cues or on word passed between offenders. Since burglary clearance rates are low, offender identity in repeat cases is rarely established.

Do neighbors of a burglarized house face higher risk?

The research says yes, under the label near repeats. Houses near a burglarized house face increased risk afterward, because offenders may return to an area where a burglary succeeded and pick a different target if the first has been secured. Nearby homes often share layout, vulnerabilities, and likely contents.

Does moving into a previously burglarized house raise my risk?

It may. The repeat-victimization research treats new occupants of a previously burglarized dwelling as a virtual repeat, on the reasoning that the features that made the address attractive (location, access, concealment, visibility) usually did not change when the residents did. We could not find a published figure quantifying the size of that risk.

Do Burglars Return to the Same House? The Repeat Burglary Evidence

Often enough that criminologists gave it a name. In the DOJ-funded research on repeat victimization, a previously burglarized house faces elevated risk of another burglary, and the elevation is short-lived and steep: about 60 percent of repeat burglaries occurred within one month of the first, and in a Tallahassee study 25 percent occurred within a week. Most of the strongest evidence is British, and the risk fades back toward normal after roughly six weeks to two months.

Figures researched 2026-08-19; each source below carries its access date. Prices change; treat any price here as "as of" its date.

What the repeat-burglary research found

Repeat victimization is one of the better-replicated findings in crime research. The COPS Office problem-solving tool guide Analyzing Repeat Victimization (Tool Guide No. 4, 2005) by Deborah Lamm Weisel gathers the numbers.

The timing is the striking part. Much repeat victimization occurs within a week of the initial offense, and some within 24 hours. The guide reports that about 60 percent of repeat burglaries occurred within one month of the initial offense, and about 10 percent during the second month; after the second month the likelihood of a repeat is quite low. Researchers call this the time course: a short high-risk window, a rapid decline, then a return to roughly ordinary risk.

Two jurisdiction-level figures make it concrete. Both come from the guide's own summary table of police-record studies by other researchers (cited there at endnotes 27 and 28), not from our reading of the underlying studies, so they carry the guide's summarisation rather than the original authors' full method and caveats:

Location	Residential burglary repeats within one week	Within one month
Tallahassee, Florida	25 percent	51 percent
Merseyside, England	11 percent	33 percent

Both rows are reproduced as they appear in Table 5 of Analyzing Repeat Victimization.

The separate DOJ guide on burglary of single-family houses puts the size of the risk in comparative terms: compared with houses never burglarized, previously targeted houses are up to four times more likely to be burglarized, and any subsequent burglary is most likely to occur within six weeks of the first.

How concentrated repeat burglary is

A second way to read the evidence is to ask what share of all burglaries land on households that have already been burglarized. The answer is a large minority.

From British Crime Survey data reported in the same guide, among burglary victims in a year:

Number of burglaries suffered	Share of victims	Share of all burglaries
One	81 percent	60 percent
Two	13 percent	19 percent
Three or more	7 percent	21 percent

So the 7 percent of burglary victims who were hit three or more times accounted for 21 percent of all burglaries. Adding the bottom two rows of that same table gives the fuller version: the 20 percent of burglary victims who were hit two or more times accounted for 40 percent of all burglaries.

Police records show the same shape. The guide also summarises a police-record study, for which it names no city, where 10,828 burglaries were reported in 1990: 97 percent of the roughly 300,000 addresses were not burglarized at all; among the 3 percent that were, 82 percent suffered a single burglary and 18 percent suffered two or more, and those repeat addresses accounted for 39 percent of all burglaries.

The headline is not that most burglary victims get hit twice. Most do not. The headline is that repeat addresses absorb a disproportionate share of the total, and that this concentration is predictable enough that police forces build interventions around it.

Why offenders come back

The research offers several explanations rather than one, and the guides are careful not to overclaim which dominates.

The DOJ burglary guide lists these reasons for revictimization: some houses simply offer cues of a good payoff or easy access, and those cues do not change after a burglary; burglars return for property they left behind during the first burglary; burglars tell other offenders about desirable houses; and offenders may come back months later to steal property the owners have presumably replaced with insurance proceeds.

There is also a version of the effect that is not about your house at all. Researchers distinguish true repeats (the same address and occupants hit again) from near repeats, meaning targets physically close to the original victim that share layout, vulnerabilities, and likely contents. Apartments near a burglarized unit are the standard example. The burglary guide notes that houses near a burglarized house face increased risk afterward: offenders may return to the area of a successful burglary and, if the first target has been hardened, pick another one nearby.

A third category the repeat-victimization guide names is the virtual repeat, which includes new occupants of a dwelling that was previously burglarized. If you just moved into a house that was burglarized before you arrived, the vulnerability may have moved in with the address rather than with the previous residents.

How strong is this evidence for a US household

Weaker than the confidence with which it usually gets repeated. Three limits are worth stating.

Most of the numbers are not American. The repeat-victimization guide notes explicitly that, with limited exceptions, most estimates of repeat victimization are produced outside the United States and drawn from the British Crime Survey, the International Victims Survey, and similar sources. The Tallahassee figures are one of the US data points.

The main US victimization survey is not built to measure this. The same guide notes the National Crime Victimization Survey is not designed to detect repeat victimization: it handles high-frequency series victimizations separately, collects data only for incidents in the preceding six months, and samples addresses in a way that cannot follow people who move.

The estimates are also conservative in a specific direction. Victimization surveys lose respondents over time, offender interviews depend on offender candor, and unreported crime pulls down police-based estimates. The guide adds that repeat victims may be less likely to call police again, which suppresses the measured repeat rate further.

We could not find a current published US national repeat-burglary rate. The honest summary is that the direction and the timing of the effect are well supported across countries and data sources, while the precise percentage for a US household in 2026 is not something anyone we found has published.

The practical reading is narrow and useful. If your home has been burglarized, the weeks immediately after are the elevated-risk window, and that window is when repairs to the actual weak point (the forced door, the unlocked window, the concealed side entrance) do the most good. The broader question of what deters and what does not is covered in do security signs deter burglars, and the practical entry-point work is in the apartment door security checklist and home security for renters. If a break-in has you weighing monitored response, the cost side is in what home security costs per month.

Frequently asked questions

How likely is a burglar to come back?: Elevated but not inevitable, and the elevation is brief. Research summarized by the COPS Office puts about 60 percent of repeat burglaries within one month of the first and about 10 percent in the second month, with low likelihood after that. A separate DOJ guide reports previously burglarized houses are up to four times more likely to be burglarized than houses never targeted.
How soon do burglars return?: Fast, where it happens. In Tallahassee, Florida, 25 percent of repeat residential burglaries occurred within one week and 51 percent within one month. In Merseyside, England, the figures were 11 percent within a week and 33 percent within a month. The DOJ burglary guide puts the most likely repeat window at within six weeks.
Is it the same burglar who comes back?: The research does not settle that, and we would not claim it. The explanations offered include the original offender returning for property left behind or for insured replacements, and other offenders acting on cues or on word passed between offenders. Since burglary clearance rates are low, offender identity in repeat cases is rarely established.
Do neighbors of a burglarized house face higher risk?: The research says yes, under the label near repeats. Houses near a burglarized house face increased risk afterward, because offenders may return to an area where a burglary succeeded and pick a different target if the first has been secured. Nearby homes often share layout, vulnerabilities, and likely contents.
Does moving into a previously burglarized house raise my risk?: It may. The repeat-victimization research treats new occupants of a previously burglarized dwelling as a virtual repeat, on the reasoning that the features that made the address attractive (location, access, concealment, visibility) usually did not change when the residents did. We could not find a published figure quantifying the size of that risk.

Sources

COPS Office / POP Center Tool Guide No. 4, Analyzing Repeat Victimization (2005) by Deborah Lamm Weisel: much repeat victimization occurs within a week and some within 24 hours; about 60 percent of repeat burglaries within one month and about 10 percent in the second month; Tallahassee residential burglary 25 percent within a week and 51 percent within a month; Merseyside residential burglary 11 percent within one week and 33 percent within one month; British Crime Survey concentration in the guide's Tables 5 and 6 (81/13/7 percent of victims; 60/19/21 percent of offenses, so the 20 percent hit twice or more account for 40 percent of burglaries); 1990 city study of 10,828 burglaries across about 300,000 addresses: 97 percent not burglarized, 82 percent of victims hit once and 18 percent twice or more, with 39 percent of burglaries at addresses hit two or more times; definitions of true repeats, near victims and virtual repeats; note that most estimates originate outside the United States; NCVS not designed to detect repeat victimization; estimates conservative due to attrition, unreported crime and reduced reporting by repeat victims: https://popcenter.asu.edu/sites/g/files/litvpz3631/files/Tools/repeat_victimization/print/index.html (accessed 2026-08-19)
COPS Office / POP Center Guide No. 18, Burglary of Single-Family Houses (2002): previously targeted houses up to four times more likely to be burglarized, with any subsequent burglary most likely within six weeks; reasons for revictimization (payoff and access cues, property left behind, offenders telling others, returning for insurance replacements); houses near burglarized houses face increased risk: https://popcenter.asu.edu/content/burglary-single-family-houses-0 (accessed 2026-08-19)